גאומטריות שונות, משקלות קפואות: הערכת תוצאות טיפול מגוונות דרך קבוצות מומחים סיבתיים

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2609.29974v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data is difficult because the most appropriate inductive bias varies with overlap, treatment imbalance, prognostic structure, and sample size. We introduce the Geometry-Diverse Anchor-Correction Expert Ensemble (GeoACE), a five-expert framework that combines a common anchor-correction estimator with complementary overlap-aware and outcome-guided geometries. Its task-level ensemble weights are learned only from internal validation predictions, frozen before test evaluation, and then applied to experts refitted on the complete development sample. The fifth expert, O-Phi-ACE, constructs an outcome-free, overlap-aware statistical projection from covariates and treatment assignment