יכולת אחת או רבות? בדיקות מבניות וחיזויות של תקפות בנצ'מרק

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2608.29420v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Frontier-model leaderboards now rank systems on economic benchmarks, and those rankings inform what organisations buy and what regulators scrutinise. Whether such benchmarks measure a capability distinct from general test-taking is a question of construct validity that a structural test and a predictive test can answer in opposite ways. We show that they do on a hash-pinned snapshot of a frontier leaderboard with 421 model configurations across twelve benchmarks, four of them economic, of which 103 configurations carry all three sparsely scored economic benchmarks and 96 carry all twelve; four hypotheses and their thresholds were fixed before analysis, and every deviation from the plan is reported. The first factor of a three-factor extra