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כתבה arXiv cs.LG ·

חוקים לניבוי הישרדות

Proper Scoring Rules for Right-Censored Survival Data
חוקרים מציעים מסגרת לניבוי הישרדות עם צנזורה. המחקר מפתח חוקים לניבוי הישרדות עם צנזורה ומדגים את יעילותם.
תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2606.06393v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Proper scoring rules provide a rigorous theoretical basis for the training and evaluation of probabilistic forecasts. In survival analysis, such forecasts describe the distribution of the time until an event occurs. However, this event time is often only partially observed because follow-up may end before the event occurs, resulting in right censoring. We propose a framework for proper scoring of right-censored survival outcomes based on a simple idea: first, map the predictive distribution through the censoring mechanism, then apply the underlying proper score on the induced observed-data law. This yields localized scores for fixed censoring times and marginalized scores when the censoring time is random or only partially observed. The r
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