פיענוח כלכלת התחזית: סוויטת נתונים למחזור חיי שוק התחזית

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2604.20421v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Prediction markets are markets for trading claims on universal future events (e.g., presidential elections). Fueled by a meteoric surge with over \$50 billion trading volume, they have emerged as a promising forecasting mechanism, where their prices provide continuously updated signals of collective beliefs. In decentralized platforms (e.g., Polymarket), the prediction market lifecycle include six stages: market creation, token registration, trading, oracle interaction, dispute, and final settlement. However, comprehensively tracking this complete pipeline remains a major challenge, as the underlying data are severely fragmented across heterogeneous on-chain smart contracts and off-chain sources. To fill this critical gap, we present the