הטיה אחורית בניבוי קליני

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2609.13454v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Clinical decisions are prospective, but clinical language models are often evaluated on retrospective records that reveal the final diagnosis, treatment response, and outcome. Such evaluations may reward the use of future information rather than reasoning under the uncertainty present at the decision point. We introduce a paired benchmark for measuring outcome-conditioned shifts consistent with hindsight bias in clinical temporal reasoning. It contains 171 case reports from the PubMed Central Open Access Subset---40 sepsis and 131 GLP-1/diabetes cases---represented as both textual narratives and human-annotated and LLM-generated textual time series (TTS). For each case, questions are tied to a clinically meaningful cutoff and paired with a pr