באיזה נקודות טקסט מספק מידע? בדיקה של מדדי-מידע-תאורטיים לתחזית-זמני-מרוב-מודלים

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2609.11282v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multimodal forecasting models that combine time series with text annotations promise richer prediction through textual context, but how do we know whether a text annotation meaningfully contributes to the forecasters prediction? This is an information-theoretic question, but to evaluate whether information-theoretic metrics can reliably measure the predictive value an annotation provides, a ground truth benchmark is needed, and none currently exist. We create a synthetic time series signal with annotations in three categories: semantically correct, incorrect, and irrelevant. Because the data generation process is fully controlled, ground-truth information content is known exactly, enabling principled evaluation of six complementary mutual inf