פיתוח סוגיות סתומות במערכת ההערכה של מזג האוויר

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2511.14218v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Weather forecast uncertainty arises from imperfect analyses and forecast models, but ensemble spread alone does not reveal how distinct sources relate to downstream targets. We introduce Pangu-Bayes, a probabilistic forecasting hierarchy that treats atmospheric-state and learned-model uncertainty as distinct stochastic variables, crossing flow-dependent perturbations of the evolving state with Bayesian parameter samples. This construction yields model-defined source-resolved variance components and matched pathway evaluation. Across 90 held-out 2023 tropical cyclones, Pangu-Bayes reduces track, pressure and wind errors by 54.2%, 17.2% and 24.9%, respectively, while improving rapid-intensification detection. Among 88 cyclones supporting pa