מזגנים נדירים: נתיבי טייפונים מוגדרים פוגעים באמולטור האוקיינוס של המפרץ של בנגל

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2609.04635v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural ocean emulators are being proposed for regional forecasting in cyclone-exposed coastal seas, and a natural design choice is to hand the network the cyclone as a prescribed input. We test that choice in the Bay of Bengal and find it harmful. We withhold 15 whole cyclones spanning 65 to 150 kt from GLORYS12 reanalysis and compare two U-Nets that are identical except for four prescribed cyclone-track channels. Across three seeds the ocean-only model beats persistence in every run and the storm-conditioned model loses to it in every run, with the two skill ranges disjoint (p = 3.1e-5, paired across storms). The cause is exposure frequency rather than signal content: the channels are non-zero on only 7.9% of training days, so they are out o