מאז פריצת הדברים לנאמנות: תקן ניטרולי לבדיקה של צידוד קצף זמני

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2510.25348v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Temporal cascade prediction is widely studied, yet its empirical foundations remain fragile. Most existing works report results under random cascade splits that mix past and future signals, rely on datasets with limited features and no downstream conversion labels, and compare increasingly complex models without systematically examining whether benchmark conclusions are protocol-dependent. This paper argues that the field should move from leakage-prone evaluation toward fidelity-aware benchmarking. We introduce a protocol suite and renewed evaluation standard for temporal cascade prediction, centered on the Full Temporal protocol, overlap-based leakage diagnostics, and analyses of performance inflation and temporal drift. To broaden the s