Prior-matched evaluation of operational Earth-observation classifiers: a three-number reporting method demonstrated on Sentinel-1 internal-wave detection

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2607.07146v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The Internal Waves Service screens the Sentinel-1 Wave-mode archive for internal solitary waves, routing detections to experts whose adjudication time is the resource the effort exists to conserve. Because attention is the cost of error, precision leads. Its classifier was trained and reported at a one-to-one class balance, fixed before the operational rate could be known. That rate has since emerged at roughly one scene in twenty, and a balanced-test score badly overstates the precision a validator meets. A model that scores 0.794 balanced-test precision scores 0.192 in real operation: the gap is a systematic artefact of reporting at the wrong prior, invisible to the metric most work quotes. We show the mismatch to be an evaluation probl