Beyond Self-Knowledge: Propagating Uncertainty Across Reasoning and Retrieval in LLMs

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2607.25600v2 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Retrieval-augmented generation improves knowledge-intensive question answering, but indiscriminate retrieval can introduce irrelevant evidence and unnecessary computation. We investigate whether verbalized confidence from black-box language models can serve as an actionable signal for retrieval routing. Our method, BeyondUncertainty, first elicits a structured provisional answer and confidence estimate, then applies a model-specific threshold selected on held-out validation data and frozen before test evaluation. Low-confidence questions receive top-5 TF-IDF retrieval followed by a second answer call, whereas high-confidence questions return the provisional answer directly. We evaluate 27,000 policy instances across six QA benchmarks, three