Eviction as Estimation: A Fixed-Lag Smoothing View of Test-Time Memory, and When Measuring Beats Accumulating

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2607.24667v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A language model with a bounded working memory must repeatedly decide which stored items to keep. Every deployed method decides the moment an item arrives, from the past (StreamingLLM, H2O) or from a guess about the future (SnapKV). We recast the choice as an estimation problem on a hidden signal, whether an item will be reused, placing existing methods on one axis, the commit lag $H$: online filters and learned predictors commit at $H=0$, while Belady's offline optimum sits where the whole future is known. The missing regime in between, fixed-lag smoothing, waits a bounded number of steps, observes which items a correct near-future prediction attended to, and only then commits. This measurement, demonstrated utility, turns Belady's unobserva