Adaptive Multi-Scale Forecasting and Gate-Localized Conformal Prediction for Multivariate Nonstationary Time Series

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2607.23165v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose ABF-T-GLCP, a model-agnostic framework for forecasting and uncertainty quantification in nonstationary multivariate time series. The central idea is to learn an adaptive predictive state representation for point forecasting and reuse it for conformal calibration. The forecasting module combines horizon-specific temporal experts through a learned gate and refines predictions using sparse predictive transfer across related series. The uncertainty module, Gate-Localized Conformal Prediction (GLCP), uses the learned gate state, together with temporal recency, to select locally relevant calibration residuals, thereby coupling uncertainty calibration to the predictive regimes used by the forecasting model. This shared representation al