Extreme Volatility Warning under Label Scarcity via Multi-Source Anomaly Fusion

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2607.23682v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Early warning of extreme market volatility is central to financial risk management, but actionable events are rare, nonstationary, and often triggered by exogenous information shocks. In our CSI~300 setting, only $\sim$80 positive samples are observed across 791 training days, making heavily supervised multi-source models unstable. We first analyze a 100K-parameter hierarchical text-signal fusion model (HTSF) and find that added parameterization hurts in this low-label regime. Motivated by this failure, we propose \textbf{AAMSF} (Anomaly-Augmented Multi-Signal Fusion), a semisupervised framework that combines Isolation Forest anomaly scores over market indicators, GDELT events, Chinese financial news, and English media with lightweight Ridge