Belief Propagation in LLM World Models: Measuring Strategic Information Bias with Prediction Markets

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2607.20441v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Every information ecosystem produces beliefs that shape strategic decisions. Both human analysts and AI systems inherit the blind spots of their information sources. We show that LLMs, combined with prediction markets, function as a calibrated instrument for measuring how far ecosystem-induced beliefs deviate from an external reference: LLMs extract the beliefs a text corpus implies, and prediction market price trajectories, anchored at resolution by realised outcomes, provide the calibration reference against which to quantify the deviation. We isolate the bias contribution of specific text through ablation: varying information context while holding the model fixed, with a contaminated model that knows actual outcomes as control. Applied t