Information Aggregation with AI Agents

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2604.20050v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Can Large Language Models (AI agents) aggregate dispersed private information through trading and reason about the knowledge of others by observing price movements? We conduct a controlled experiment where AI agents trade in a prediction market after receiving private signals, measuring information aggregation by the log error of the last price. We find that although the median market is effective at aggregating information in the easy information structures, performance deteriorates in the harder structures, suggesting that AI agents may suffer from similar limitations as humans when reasoning about others. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, market accuracy does not improve from allowing cheap talk communication, changing