Agent-Based Modeling of Low-Emission Fertilizer Adoption for Dairy Farm Decarbonisation using Empirical Farm Data

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2605.03648v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: To understand complex system dynamics in dairy farming requires tools that capture farm heterogeneity, social interactions, and cumulative environmental impacts. This study proposes an agent-based modelling(ABM) framework to simulate nitrogen management and low-emission fertiliser adoption across 295 Irish dairy farms over a 15-year period. Using empirical data, the model replicates farm communication through a social network, where adoption probabilities are driven by social contagion, farm-scale factors, and policy interventions such as subsidies and carbon taxes. The framework computes sectoral greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative abatement, and private-social costs, with Monte Carlo and sensitivity analyses quantifying uncertainty. Th