LLM-Grounded Explainable AI for Supply Chain Risk Early Warning via Temporal Graph Attention Networks

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2603.04818v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Disruptions at critical logistics nodes pose severe risks to global supply chains, yet existing risk prediction systems typically prioritize forecasting accuracy without providing operationally interpretable early warnings. This paper proposes an evidence-grounded framework that jointly performs supply chain bottleneck prediction and faithful natural-language risk explanation by coupling a Temporal Graph Attention Network (TGAT) with a structured large language model (LLM) reasoning module. Using maritime hubs as a representative case study for global supply chain nodes, daily spatial graphs are constructed from Automatic Identification System (AIS) broadcasts, where inter-node interactions are modeled through attention-based message pass