Wisdom of LLM Crowds: Aggregation and Contamination in Language Model Ensembles

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2607.18269v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The wisdom of crowds -- the finding that aggregating judgments across individuals often outperforms the best individual -- has been extensively studied with human forecasters. Whether the same phenomenon emerges when the ``crowd'' consists of large language models (LLMs) is an open question with both theoretical and practical implications. We elicited probability estimates from 15 LLMs on 254 binary prediction market questions and evaluated classical and learned aggregation methods. Learned aggregators -- a multilayer perceptron and a logistic regression -- outperformed all individual models and classical methods. The logistic regression was found to match the neural network, suggesting that the benefit of learned aggregation derives from lea