Uncertainty Quantification for AI-Driven Crash Simulation Surrogates: A Comparative Study of Monte Carlo Dropout and Deep Ensemble on Open-Source Bumper Beam Benchmark

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2607.18294v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning surrogate models are increasingly being explored in engineering product development to augment simulation-driven design, offering near-instantaneous predictions that complement computationally expensive high-fidelity analyses. However, a critical gap limits their adoption in safety-critical workflows: a point prediction without an accompanying uncertainty estimate cannot tell an engineer when the model should not be trusted. This work presents a systematic, head-to-head comparison of two widely used uncertainty quantification approaches -- Monte Carlo Dropout and Deep Ensembles -- applied to an open-source surrogate pipeline built on NVIDIA PhysicsNeMo. A key contribution is the use of concrete dropout, a built-in PhysicsNeMo