HindsightBench: A Black-Box Behavioral Audit Protocol for Parametric Hindsight in Time-Indexed LLM Decision Tasks

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2607.18867v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models leak parametric knowledge of realized outcomes into historical financial decision tasks. Existence is settled; what users lack is a cheap way to audit a given model for it. We present HindsightBench, a black-box behavioral audit protocol that profiles parametric hindsight in any time-indexed LLM decision task at probe-level cost (no backtests, no logprobs, no corpus access). The protocol chains a four-arm date-manipulation matrix (revealed/date-only/masked/transplanted), dual memory probes (date recovery; outcome recall), and six per-model metrics -- trigger strength, transplant effect, post-cutoff placebo, recoverability, behaviorally effective knowledge cutoff, and a recall-accuracy dissociation coefficient -- with e