Can a System-One LLM Perform Knowledge Tracing When Few or No Learners Are Logged?

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2610.11135v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Knowledge tracing (KT) models need many logged learners, so a new course or platform starts without a usable model. In LLM-based KT the LLM generates the answer, which we call System-Two; it is either fine-tuned on the target data or reasons and votes over ten samples, which is slow and gives coarse probabilities. We ask whether an off-the-shelf System-One LLM, which returns a probability for a typed question directly in a single pass, can perform KT when few or no learners are logged. On seven datasets, Jev without any data from the target platform reaches a mean AUC of .706, above the best of 28 deep KT models trained on 8 learners (.689) and above System-Two Thinking-KT on all seven datasets (.650) at about 1/100 of its API cost. Adding