ROAR: Retrieval Opportunity-Aware Refinement for Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2605.24911v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Retrieval augmentation provides time series forecasters with historical continuations, yet even candidates that outperform the base forecast may fail to improve the final prediction. We propose ROAR, a Retrieval Opportunity-Aware Refinement framework for zero-shot time series forecasting. To better exploit these improvement opportunities, its training objective allocates additional emphasis across queries based on base-forecast difficulty and the relative improvement offered by retrieved candidates. Using this objective, ROAR first learns to aggregate aligned historical candidates and uses a learned gate to control their correction strength against a fixed base forecaster. It then jointly calibrates the forecasting module and gate t