In-Context Residual Calibration for Uncertainty Quantification of Energy Time Series over Graphs

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2606.31804v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate energy demand forecasting is essential for the reliable operation and planning of modern sustainable energy systems. Spatial-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have recently achieved strong performance in point forecasting by jointly modeling temporal dynamics and relational dependencies across interconnected energy nodes. However, in real-world energy systems, accurate point forecasts alone are insufficient, as operators also require reliable uncertainty estimates to support risk-aware decision-making, grid stability, and operational planning under uncertainty. Conformal prediction provides a principled and model-agnostic framework for uncertainty quantification under exchangeability assumptions, making it particularly attr