חיזוי קונפורמי לנתונים תלויים מרחבית

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2610.10168v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Split conformal prediction uses prediction errors on held-out (calibration) data to determine how wide the prediction intervals should be. It guarantees distribution-free finite-sample coverage when these errors and the error at the target site are exchangeable. This assumption may fail under spatial dependence and nonrandom sampling geometry. Existing spatial methods use fitting residuals to remove the predictable part of spatial variation from calibration and target errors. However, the spatial variation that only the calibration residuals can predict remains in both the target and calibration errors, reducing the efficiency and stability of the interval. We address this by additionally conditioning on the calibration residuals sequential