האם אנחנו נבחנים באמת דגימות חזויות? השפעת הטיפול הקדם-מערכתי על יכולת התחזית

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2610.09096v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While established literature underscores the pivotal role of preprocessing in forecasting accuracy, this stage remains largely overlooked in current research. Modern benchmarks typically resort to simple scaling, failing to account for critical transformations required to address nonstationarity, such as differencing. This omission creates a significant structural preprocessing bias that favors models with built-in data treatments while obscuring the true potential of simpler architectures. We study this effect through a preprocessing-aware benchmark that evaluates 11 forecasting models across 16 reversible preprocessing pipelines on 29,000 M4 time series. Our results identify preprocessing as a key driver of forecasting performance. Optimizi