חידוש באינפרנסיה: חישוב נגד-טענה סביר במודלי גאוסיאני-פרוצסוריאליים

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2610.08689v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Counterfactual inference in Gaussian-process structural causal models (GP-SCMs) has been developed primarily for continuous endogenous variables, limiting applicability to causal graphs that contain discrete child nodes with continuous parents. We introduce a unified probabilistic framework for counterfactual inference with heterogeneous variable types by pairing GP predictors with explicit exogenous noise mechanisms. For discrete outcomes, we derive exact conditional noise-abduction procedures using a uniform threshold for binary variables, a Gumbel-max race for nominal categories, and a latent Gaussian cut-point model for ordinal ones. In each case, we propagate abducted noise through interventions while accounting for posterior uncertainty