Benchmarking Time Series Foundation Models for Load Forecasting Under Covariate Uncertainty

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2610.07232v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and efficient operation of modern power systems. While time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable performance across a wide range of forecasting tasks, their effectiveness for STLF under realistic operational conditions remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we present a comprehensive benchmark of four trained-from-scratch (TFS) models and four TSFMs across three real-world load forecasting datasets under operational scenarios that differ in the availability and quality of future covariate information. Our results show that Chronos-2 consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance in both zero-shot and fine-tuned settings when fut