התחלה היא הבעיה: כשל ניתוחיות בתאימות עצמית בזמן הריצה

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2610.07038v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern forecasting models are often updated after deployment so they can respond to changing data. These updates can also make predictions worse, so practical systems need a reliable monitor that can detect harmful changes and trigger protection. A natural design is to monitor the same prediction errors that guide the updates. This paper asks whether the statistical guarantee behind such a monitor remains valid when monitoring and adaptation use the same feedback. We study this question in multi-step time-series forecasting. We show that overlapping targets and dependence in forecast errors can break a key assumption required by the guarantee. The monitor may then raise alarms even when no harmful change has occurred, and its response can fur