כשפנים טובות לתחזית התנועה לא משפרות את הפיקוח: חקירה רב-שכבתית

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2610.06992v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Improved traffic forecasts do not necessarily yield better signal-control decisions. We investigate this gap through a layered diagnostic study using 29 days of reconstructed demand from Xuancheng, China, with seven dates reserved for testing. The framework evaluates point forecasts, conformal intervals, dependence-aware scenarios, and matched closed-loop controllers. Entry-level and movement-level forecasts reduce mean absolute error by 4.03% and 3.92%, respectively, relative to historical means. A nominal 90% conformal interval achieves 90.72% marginal coverage but only 75.66% on an ex-post high-demand subset. Interface audits identify decision-time leakage and reveal that only two of nine controlled intersections offer multiple effective a