תחזית צמיחת מידע ברשתות חברתיות

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2610.07209v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Limited review teams must identify which emerging claims are likely to keep growing before their eventual reach is known. We center early misinformation triage on this continuation-forecasting problem: predicting subsequent recorded propagation-tree growth from the first 30 minutes of activity. On FibVID, we compare early node count with structural depth entropy, temporal arrival entropy, and their pair while keeping all propagation trees from each original claim in one partition. Across 352 test trees from 59 claim groups separate from training, the combined model raises $R^2$ for log-transformed future growth from 0.307 to 0.323 and reduces log-MAE by 2.4% (95% claim-bootstrap CI, -0.4% to 5.2%). The gain is especially pronounced among 97