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תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2511.12749v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Forecasting many sparse series requires two choices: how much of each series' own past to retain, and how much to borrow from other series. We show that when one exponential recency operator is applied to item- and group-level statistics alike in a hierarchical empirical-Bayes hurdle model, the two become one decision: forgetting preserves the leverage of a shared prior while raising the noise floor against which fine cross-series structure must be resolved. We formalize this two-sided effect as a fitting-window diagnostic, a credibility bound and a resolution condition for candidate pools, and derive from it an ex ante screen for regimes where refinement cannot pay. On five public intermittent-demand panels comprising over 19,000 s