S2S-JEPA: Predicting the Predictable at Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2610.03106v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale, roughly from two weeks to two months ahead, is a critical forecast window for sectors such as agriculture, energy, and water management. Yet, it is widely known as the `predictability desert'. Recent AI weather models excel up to two weeks ahead but deteriorate beyond, largely because they are trained to predict fine-scale details that are neither predictable nor essential at S2S timescales. We argue that a more physically grounded objective is to forecast only the slowly varying components that remain predictable. Computer vision reached the same conclusion with the Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA), which predicts in latent space, discarding unpredictable details. In this work, we