פלטורמה להגדרת ספקה באופן ישיר: חידוש בהבחנה בין ספקה אפיסטמית ואלקטורית

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2608.05995v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Reliable uncertainty estimates are critical in safety-sensitive applications. For such estimates to be useful in practice, it is crucial to understand the sources underlying a model's uncertainty, motivating the disentanglement of total uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. Existing notions of uncertainty differ in the sources they capture and, consequently, in their definitions of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, with no universally accepted definition. We define uncertainty through sample-conditional pointwise posterior risk, which is the expected loss of a predictor under the distribution of plausible ground-truth functions given the observed sample. This definition unifies probabilistic and risk-based concepts of u