Contingent Exposure Routing for Financial AI: Outage Risk and the Cost of Indivisible Decisions

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2610.00239v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Model failover restores availability, but changes which financial institutions share decision errors. We formulate outage-contingent routing through a local market-impact response matrix and study expected squared price displacement. A symmetric construction shows that a shared backup can leave an order-one concentration floor as the number of primary endpoints grows, while balanced fallback risk decreases inversely with the surviving endpoint count. For indivisible decisions, we derive the exact second moment of independent randomized routing and an effective-exposure granularity that determines its gap from fractional allocation. Conditional-expectation rounding gives a finite-agent bound without coupled quotas; a separate swap procedure pr