הקשחת מידע רך

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2505.12269v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We examine how the cost of transforming qualitative information into precise numerical estimates--a form of integration cost--creates a structural friction in expectations formation. To isolate this integration cost from the costs of information awareness and acquisition, we exploit sell-side analyst reports, in which the same forecaster simultaneously produces textual narratives and numerical forecasts. Because the information underlying the text has already been acquired, any systematic gap between the two outputs can be attributed to integration costs. We document systematic quantification inefficiency: an analyst's textual tone negatively predicts her contemporaneous forecast errors and positively predicts her subsequent numeric