RICE-Alpha: Reliability-Informed Correction with Event Graphs for LLM-Agent Stock Forecasting

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2609.34004v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Equity-relevant news evolves through temporally dependent corporate events, making historical information useful only when event continuity, information availability, and transition reliability are modeled. Existing LLM-based financial agents incorporate historical evidence, yet they provide limited support for preserving issuer-specific chronology under point-in-time constraints and for identifying when historical transitions contribute information beyond the current forecast. We present RICE-Alpha (Reliability-Informed Correction with Event Graphs), a point-in-time stock-scoring framework that separates a history-aware multi-view Base Alpha from a reliability-calibrated residual correction derived from historical event continuation. A M