Proper Scoring Rule-based Diffusion for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2609.38632v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent probabilistic weather forecasters train stochastic predictors with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) to generate each ensemble member in a single forward pass. These models learn the predictive distribution from the forecast context alone, which becomes difficult at longer forecast horizons where uncertainty is high. To learn the predictive distribution more effectively, we introduce auxiliary conditional denoising tasks that predict the same future state from the context and its corrupted version, which provides partial future information that can reduce prediction ambiguity. Building on distributional diffusion models, we learn the conditional distributions of these tasks with a single stochastic predictor by minimizing