Hierarchical Utility Calibration for Structured Multiclass Decisions

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2609.36532v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In multiclass probabilistic prediction, Utility Calibration (UC), which focuses auditing on specified utilities, has recently received attention as a way to guarantee downstream decisions while controlling computational and sample requirements. At the same time, some multiclass problems have meaningful label hierarchies that play important roles in medicine and image classification, yet how UC evaluates utility within a hierarchy remains insufficiently understood. We show that the difference between realized utility and predicted mean utility admits an exact decomposition into a sum of contributions from the internal nodes of the label tree. This decomposition shows that positive and negative contributions from different nodes can cancel, a