Proper Calibeating

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2605.26703v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The classic concept of "calibrated forecasts" and its more recent refinement, "calibeating," are defined with respect to the standard quadratic scoring rule. We extend these notions to the class of proper scoring rules (for which the true distribution is an optimal forecast) and define \textit{proper calibration} and \textit{proper calibeating} by requiring the corresponding guarantees to hold uniformly over all bounded proper scoring rules. We first establish that calibration always implies proper calibration, whereas calibeating need not imply proper calibeating. Second, we show how to guarantee proper calibeating and proper multicalibeating; in particular, \textit{complete calibeating}---a strong form of calibeating that calibeat