דיוק אינו שירות: במבחן-מודע-להחלטות לקידוד-מחדש-לפני-זמן-קצוב

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2609.13840v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A contract-logistics spare-parts operator is paid on order-level service: an order counts only if every requested line is fulfilled, yet forecasters are selected based on line-level forecast accuracy. This disconnect matters when demand is intermittent and lumpy, histories are short, and lead times span months. We benchmarked 38 forecasting methods spanning classical, intermittent-demand, machine-learning, deep-learning, and pretrained foundation models. A common decision-aware protocol evaluates them on an industrial panel drawn from a live contract and two public datasets. Forecast-accuracy rank and order-service rank are negatively correlated on the industrial panel, at -0.555, across methods evaluated on 20,330 real multi-item orders. Ser