Early Prediction of Satellite Collision Probability Using a Hybrid TCN-Transformer Model for a CDM-Based Conjunction Analysis Framework

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2609.13191v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The rapid expansion of operational satellites and orbital debris has increased the frequency of close approach events in low Earth orbit (LEO), creating a higher operational burden for satellite operators. This problem is especially critical for satellites using electric propulsion, where low-thrust maneuver capability imposes additional time constraints on collision avoidance planning. In current practice, Conjunction Data Messages (CDMs) provide relative state, covariance, miss distance, time of closest approach, and probability of collision (PoC) information for conjunction assessment. However, the nonlinear propagation of orbital uncertainties and the sensitivity of PoC to covariance evolution make the interpretation of sequential CDMs ch