Chance-Constrained Belief-Space Maneuver Planning for Autonomous Collision Avoidance Under Uncertainty

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2609.13428v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Increasing conjunction frequency in low Earth orbit places growing pressure on spacecraft operators to determine not only whether an encounter requires mitigation, but whether sufficient information is available to commit to a maneuver. This work formulates this information-action tradeoff as a belief-space planning problem for conjunctions between a maneuverable spacecraft and an unmaneuverable secondary object. The planner represents the uncertain orbital states as Gaussian beliefs and uses a chance-constrained belief-space Monte Carlo tree search framework to reason over possible future tracking updates before time of closest approach (TCA). A terminal chance constraint limits the probability of reaching TCA above a prescribed collision-