Pilot Early, Commit Late: A Real-Options Model of Enterprise AI Adoption under Rapid Technological Progress

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2609.15919v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Artificial intelligence presents firms with an unusual timing problem. The technology frontier is improving rapidly, implementation is partly irreversible, and organization-specific capabilities are accumulated through action. This paper develops a two-period decision model of AI deployment under uncertainty in which a firm chooses among immediate deployment, a limited pilot, and waiting. Deployment earns current operating value but exposes the firm to architectural obsolescence; waiting preserves the option to adopt after the frontier is observed; a pilot sacrifices current operating value to build organization-specific learning without full commitment. The model yields five central timing results and a sixth comparative result on where lear