Two tests of phase-structure features for transition prediction

תקציר מקורי באנגליתarXiv:2609.00335v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Following arXiv:2607.25507, this report examines whether phase-derived features improve endpoint prediction over a combined baseline in two settings: a sealed contradiction comparison and a retrospective analysis of answer changes across matched pressure prompts. Study 1 froze a contradiction-category pipeline before sealed scoring. On 1,136 eligible primary cases, adding PC-2 produced a paired AUROC difference of +0.00087. The 99% bias-corrected accelerated interval included zero, and the prespecified +0.05 threshold was not met. A replication role with 1,063 cases showed a same-direction increment of +0.00019. The replication-direction condition passed, but both primary conditions failed, so advancement failed. Study 2 developed fifteen